Shopify merchants sold $14.6 billion over Black Friday Cyber Monday in 2025, up 27% on the year (24% on a constant currency basis). In 2019 that number was $2.9 billion. That's roughly 5x in six years. It's the headline that gets bigger every November, and it's the least useful number in the whole weekend.
The useful numbers sit underneath it: what a customer actually spends, where they come from, and whether they ever come back. That last one is where most Black Friday math quietly falls apart.
Here's the full 2025 picture, and the benchmarks worth measuring your own store against.
The record, in context
Shopify's BFCM total has climbed every year: $2.9B in 2019, $5.1B in 2020, $6.3B in 2021, $7.5B in 2022, $9.3B in 2023, $11.5B in 2024, $14.6B in 2025. Shopify reports this as global sales across its merchants, online and offline and net of refunds, so it doesn't line up one-to-one with US-only figures, but the direction is clear.
Across all US retailers, Adobe put Cyber Week 2025 online spend at $44.2 billion. Black Friday was $11.8B, and Cyber Monday was $14.25B. So Cyber Monday is still the bigger spend day, but Black Friday is catching it: Black Friday online spend grew 9.1% in 2025 while Cyber Monday grew 7.1%, and Black Friday has outgrown it two years running. Note the two numbers measure different things, Shopify's is global merchant GMV and Adobe's is US online, so read each against its own prior year, not against each other.
For 2026, Deloitte is forecasting US holiday ecommerce up 7.5% to 8.4%, against total holiday retail growth of 4% to 4.8%. Online should grow about twice as fast as retail overall. Planning around a flat year is planning to lose share.
Benchmark your store against these
Aggregate billions don't help you set a target. These do, and they come from DTC-native data rather than mall foot traffic.
Average order value. Across Triple Whale brands, BFCM 2024 AOV ran about $90 for the weekend: $97.52 on Black Friday, $84.52 on Cyber Monday. Black Friday AOV was down 3% on the prior year, so a lower AOV at higher volume is normal for the weekend, not a warning sign.
Mobile. 79% of Black Friday traffic was mobile in Bluecore's 2024 benchmark, and Shopify's own split was already 73% mobile back in 2022. That's traffic share, not purchase share, which runs lower: Adobe put mobile at 56.4% of online holiday transactions for the season, since bigger and considered purchases still skew to desktop. Either way, if your product page and checkout aren't built mobile-first, that's where the weekend leaks. Our 15 Black Friday CRO fixes start there for a reason.
Payment mix. Buy now, pay later crossed $1 billion in a single day for the first time on Cyber Monday 2025 and reached about $20 billion for the season (Adobe), the large majority of it on mobile. If your Black Friday pushes higher-ticket carts, BNPL at checkout is closer to table stakes than a nice-to-have now.
Channel mix. Klaviyo attributed 43% of Black Friday 2024 GMV to email and SMS. Triple Whale found Meta took 68.77% of DTC ad spend on Black Friday. Read those together: paid buys the new customer, owned keeps the margin. Brands that only fund the first half pay for every order twice.
New vs returning. Triple Whale brands ran 59.71% new-customer revenue and 40.29% returning for BFCM 2024. Then 2025 flipped it: in Bluecore's 2025 cohort, returning buyers took 53% of Black Friday orders against 34.8% new, the first year repeat buyers led. Read alongside the retention numbers below, that looks like the market waking up to exactly the problem this piece is about.
One number to handle with care: there's no honest "the average Shopify store converts at X%" for Black Friday. Triple Whale's weekend data works out to roughly a 5.75% tracked-session ratio across its brands, but conversion swings hard by price point, category, and traffic source. Use it to sanity-check your own rate, not as a target someone sold you.
The channel that wasn't here last year
One 2025 shift belongs on every Black Friday dashboard from now on: shoppers arriving from AI. Adobe measured traffic to US retail sites from generative-AI sources up 693% over the 2025 holiday season, and that traffic converted about 31% better than other sources. Salesforce estimated AI and agents influenced about 20% of holiday retail sales. The base is still small, but it's growing faster than any other channel on this list, and the stores getting surfaced are the ones with clean, machine-readable product data. If ChatGPT and Perplexity can't read your catalog, you're invisible in the fastest-growing lane into the weekend. How to actually get found there is its own piece: Black Friday SEO and AI shopping.
The number nobody puts on the dashboard
Every stat above is about the sale. This one is about what you actually bought. Ometria tracked customers acquired on Black Friday 2024 and found 4% of them placed a second order in the next 12 months. A typical new customer is about 6x more likely to come back than that.
It gets sharper. Of the few Black Friday buyers who did repurchase, many waited until the next Black Friday to do it. They didn't become customers. They became deal-watchers who set a reminder for a year later.
That's the catch behind the record. A brand can post its biggest weekend ever, funded largely by a discount, and acquire a cohort that mostly never pays full price. The revenue is real. The customer often isn't.
None of this is an argument against running Black Friday. It's an argument for measuring it past the weekend. Gross sales tell you the promotion worked. Second-order rate tells you whether the business did.
What the data says to do
Three moves fall out of these numbers, and each has its own piece in this cluster.
Discount with structure, not depth. Klaviyo found 10% to 15% and 20% to 25% offers outperformed steeper cuts in its 2024 data, the brands cutting least grew fastest, and the deep-discount cohorts are exactly the ones that don't return. The margin math is in the Black Friday discount trap.
Treat the week after as the real campaign. Half of DTC repeat buyers who come back place order two within 30 days, and about three quarters within 90, so the window right after Black Friday, not a generic six-month winback, is where a one-time buyer becomes a customer. That's the 7 days after Black Friday.
Fund owned channels before the weekend, not during it. 43% of Black Friday GMV came through email and SMS, and those flows have to be built in October to fire in November. Setup lives in the BFCM email and SMS calendar and the full Black Friday checklist.
The record will break again in 2026. Whether that's good news for your store comes down to the 4%.
Part of the complete Shopify Black Friday playbook.
Written by Andrew Zam, co-founder of Liquid Lemon, a Shopify / Shopify Plus design + development studio. Figures reflect Shopify, Adobe Analytics, Triple Whale, Klaviyo, Bluecore, Ometria, Salesforce, and Deloitte reporting for 2024 and 2025; check the current sources before you plan.
